Friday, December 15, 2006

State Senate District 30

I'm starting a poll for blog readers concerning the race to replace Steve Cohen in District 30. The link is here.

My thoughts:
Robert Spence: I think Freedonian pretty well slashed up Spence here.

Larry Parrish: I shutter at the very thought. However, if you think porn is the most pressing issue in our community then he's your man.

Charles Hopkins: Who?

Beverly Marrero: She's my state rep. I have tons of respect for her, but I don't want to have to pay for another special election for her to do the exact same job that she does now if there is a viable alternative. Also, this election will be extremely low turnout and could be snuck into by a one-and-done Republican. That would remove Wilder as Speaker (as hard as that is to fathom.) Beverly doesn't have a reputation as a strong campaigner, and she will be hamstrung when it comes to fundraising because she will be in session during the campaign.

Kevin Gallagher: I've gotten to know Kevin fairly well over the past few campaign cycles. He'd be a progressive to a similar extent as Marrero. However, he won't have his hands tied when it comes to raising money, he has a strong and active campaign staff and volunteer corps, and his victory won't necessitate more of our money getting spent in another election. I like the idea of both Kevin and Beverly serving in Nashville. Beverly stays there either way. Therefore, I'm supporting Kevin.

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

I think it's fairly clear by now what I think of Spence, so I won't insult anyone's intelligence by pretending I'm considering him.

So it's down to Marrero vs my friend, Kevin Gallagher. I had to kind of "step outside" the friendship zone and think about both of these candidates based on their merits.

And I still came up with Gallagher. I want a younger, more energetic senator that's actually going to sponsor legislation and push for it.

vibinc said...

I think your reasoning is sound. The fundraising thing is the key. If Marrero can't raise money during the session it doesn't seem like there's much hope of her winning in the general assuming she won the primary.

I don't know anyone who wants Spence, and I generally defer to freedonian's analysis on that whole thing.

We'll see how it shakes out. The ballot gets set in stone on Monday at noon.

http://www.shelbyvote.com/2007%20NOTICE.HTM

Larry said...

Actually, the reasoning isn't sound.

Marrero should have a healthy campaign chest leftover from the last election.

Parrish will go after the social conservatives but that won't be enough since the libertarians will probably stay away from him.

David Holt said...

While that may be the case, that doesn't change the annoyance of paying over 100 grand for a new election when she keeps the same job as before. Nor does it change the fact that she doesn't do ground campaigns. Gallagher and his crew have already been hitting the streets hard. Odds are heavy that whatever Democrat wins the primary walks to victory easily. It's just that nothing is ever sure in a special election

LeftWingCracker said...

I REFUSE to downplay Larry Parrish in a low-turnout special election.

While I admire John and larry's principled dismissals of Parrish, there are a lot of Goopers who don't care who he is, just so he would give them an 18th vote to knock out Wilder.

they will try to turn this into a District 29 situation while the rest of us try to hold it for the Democrats.

Look, if Marrero stays in and wins the primary, of course I'll support her, that's not the question.

The question is, can she win a three-way race with Gallagher, who will be pulling from her base, and Spence? If Spence wins, given the current climate, how many progressives say the hell with it and stay home?

Anonymous said...

I sense that Marrero is a stand-in for Upton and Cocke in this special election. Aside from not having significant support in the District for either of their candidacies, why should they run when Marrero can be their mouthpiece??? She is a nice lady, but it is time for leadership not driven by commitment to factions.

We can save the taxpayers (that is YOU and ME) $100,000 for ANOTHER special election and give someone else (my vote goes to Gallagher) an opportunity to sponsor and help pass creative and progressive legislation.

Anonymous said...

By the time the election takes place, the speaker of the senate (Wilder) will have already have been elected and he is elected for the entire two-year session. Thus, the special election will have absolutely no effect on the speaker of the senate for two years ... unless Wilder just finally dies.

What is the racial makeup of the district? I don't think it is over 1/3 black. If that is true, then it wouldn't matter if Gallagher and Marrero drew from each other.

Marrero already has a base, funds, and she'll draw the female vote (including black females).

What works against Marrero is that she is just a mean, old biddy who doesn't campaign well. If she weren't in a solid democrat state house seat, she wouldn't stand a chance against a good opponent.

In the general election I doubt very much Parrish could pull off the near upset that Roland did. Parrish has his own baggage and Roland was a new face. Plus enough anti-Ford folks voted to almost pull off the upset.

However, he would do better against Marrero. Marrero's well known pro-gay position might draw out a few more social conservatives to vote. Altho less well known, her anti-male (unless you're a gay male) attitude might keep a few men from voting at all who would have normally voted democrat.

Brassmask said...

Regarding the 100 grand: Wouldn't it be a shame to have to pay for that after Steve Cohen was so gracious regarding his resignation in order to save the taxpayers' money?

Seems a no-brainer that Gallagher should be the way to go. And with so many vouching for him, it goes even easier with me.

Anonymous said...

It's interesting that Anon 6:19 would make the immediate assumption that only Blacks would vote for Spence by saying Gallagher and Marrero wouldn't have to worry if the district is only 1/3 Black. Spence was the city attorney and has some White high profile friends and supporters. These people apparently see some semblance of a respectable person in Spence, or at least someone who will play ball. It seems, then, that he would be able to convince some White people to vote for him.

It also seems that maybe Gallagher and Marrero would at least try to attract some Blacks to vote for them.

Whatever happened to Team Memphis, and the elation from so many liberal bloggers about Cohen's win and what that meant for race relations.

Anonymous said...

My son brought me here this evening, and I see many things I don't understand - like what is a "progressive"? But I can't resist putting my 2 cents in on something I do know a good bit about, so here goes: I'm white and a friend and supporter of Robert Spence - although I am far, far from high profile. I support Robert, not because he will play ball, but because he is as smart as a whip, as hard-working as anyone I've ever seen, a great (although extremely strict) Dad, and a person of independent but reasoned thought and deed. He'll be a TERRIFIC member of the State Senate from District 30. It's a shame that ya'll are too busy making a chess game out of this race to focus on these simple fundamentals.